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Risk Taking of HIV-Infection and Income Uncertainty : Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

Djemaï, Elodie (2009-01), Risk Taking of HIV-Infection and Income Uncertainty : Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. https://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/7314

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Type
Document de travail / Working paper
Date
2009-01
Publisher
Toulouse School of Economics
Series title
TSE working paper series
Series number
09-007
Published in
Toulouse
Pages
41
Metadata
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Author(s)
Djemaï, Elodie
Abstract (EN)
This paper questions the positive relationship between HIV prevalence and income in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we hypothesize that a greater economic instability would reduce the incentives to engage in self-protective behaviors inducing people to increasingly take the risk of HIV-infection and hence causing a rise in HIV prevalence. We provide a simple model to stress on the e ects of an increase in income risk in the incentives for protection. We test the prediction using a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1980-2001. It is shown that the epidemic is widespread in countries that experience a great instability in gross domestic product over the whole period. When introducing income instability, GDP per capita is devoid of predictive power and the puzzle of the positive relationship between income and prevalence in Africa is lifted. Additional nding states that the risk taking of HIV-infection increases when the individuals are facing frequent and large crop shocks.
Subjects / Keywords
risk; HIV; Sub-Saharan Africa
JEL
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
I12 - Health Behavior

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