Abstract (EN)

This paper addresses the issue of the positive observed relationship be-tween GDP and HIV prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa. We examine therole of the volatility of GDP per capita in lowering the incentives to investin self-protection and, empirically, in the spread of the epidemic. Using apanel dataset of Sub-Saharan African countries over the 1990-2007 time pe-riod and a dynamic panel data framework, a more unstable GDP distributionis found to accelerate the spread of AIDS. The positive relationship betweenHIV prevalence and economic volatility is robust to the inclusion of additionalcontrol variables and to the de nition of the measure of GDP volatility.