The Impact of MERCOSUR on Trade of Brazilian States
Siroën, Jean-Marc; Yücer, Aycil (2012), The Impact of MERCOSUR on Trade of Brazilian States, Review of World Economics, 148, 3, p. 553-582. 10.1007/s10290-012-0127-0
TypeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
Journal nameReview of World Economics
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Abstract (EN)We consider the impact of MERCOSUR on trade among Brazilian states and on trade by Brazilian states with MERCOSUR and the rest of the world. We use a theoretically founded gravity model to shed light on MERCOSUR’s possible creation and diversion effects as well as its “preference erosion” effect on trade among Brazilian states. Using data on interstate trade over a 4-year period, including 1 year prior to the MERCOSUR period (1991), we deliver empirical evidence at state level with a focus on the impact of MERCOSUR which can vary across Brazilian regions. We show that MERCOSUR increased Brazilian states’ trade with member countries, but had no effect on either interstate trade or Brazilian states’ trade with third countries. The paper finds that MERCOSUR’s impact varies across Brazilian regions and that Center West region did not benefit from the integration to MERCOSUR. We use an estimation method dealing better with the traditional issue of zero trade values and heteroskedasticity than ordinary least squares does.
Subjects / KeywordsCréation de commerce; Détournement de commerce; Trade Diversion; Erosion des préférences; Gravity Model; MERCOSUR; Trade Creation; Preference Erosion; Accords commerciaux régionaux; Regional Trade Agreements; Modèles de gravité
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