Résumé (EN)

This article proposes an econometric analysis of the demand for mobility in the aviation sector. The role played by different variables (GDP, jet-fuel prices, exogenous shocks, market maturity) on air traffic is estimated using dynamic panel-data modeling. GDP appears to have a positive influence on air traffic, whereas Jet-Fuel prices have a non-linear effect on air traffic. Our analysis shows that the magnitude of the influence of these air traffic determinants differs widely among regions. Then, we use our model to predict the evolution of air traffic until 2025. According to our main scenario, air traffic should be multiplied by a factor of two between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7% (ranging from 3% in North America to 8% in China, at the regional level) expressed in RTK.