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Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS

Keppler, Jan-Horst; Mansanet-Bataller, Maria (2010), Causalities between CO2, electricity, and other energy variables during phase I and phase II of the EU ETS, Energy Policy, 38, 7, p. 3329-3341. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.004

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Type
Article accepté pour publication ou publié
Date
2010
Journal name
Energy Policy
Volume
38
Number
7
Publisher
Elsevier
Pages
3329-3341
Publication identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.004
Metadata
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Author(s)
Keppler, Jan-Horst

Mansanet-Bataller, Maria
Abstract (EN)
The topic of this article is the analysis of the interplay between daily carbon, electricity and gas price data with the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) for CO2 emissions. In a first step we have performed Granger causality tests for Phase I of the EU ETS (January 2005 until December 2007) and the first year of Phase II of the EU ETS (2008). The analysis includes both spot and forward markets—given the close interactions between the two sets of markets. The results show that during Phase I coal and gas prices, through the clean dark and spark spread, impacted CO2 futures prices, which in return Granger caused electricity prices. During the first year of the Phase II, the short-run rent capture theory (in which electricity prices Granger cause CO2 prices) prevailed. On the basis of the qualitative results of the Granger causality tests we obtained the formulation testable equations for quantitative analysis. Standard OLS regressions yielded statistically robust and theoretically coherent results.
Subjects / Keywords
CO2 futures; Energy prices; Granger causality
JEL
G13 - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
Q49 - Other

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