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dc.contributor.authorLardic, Sandrine
dc.contributor.authorDossou, François
dc.contributor.authorMichalon, Karine
dc.date.accessioned2009-06-29T09:13:28Z
dc.date.available2009-06-29T09:13:28Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.identifier.urihttps://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/514
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectEarnings Biasen
dc.subjectForecastsen
dc.subjectFirms
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.classificationjelE37en
dc.subject.classificationjelC53en
dc.subject.classificationjelG17
dc.subject.classificationjelG24
dc.subject.classificationjelL25
dc.titleCan earnings forecast be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?en
dc.typeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
dc.description.abstractenThe recent period has highlighted a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts’ anticipations. Literature on this subject underlines optimism in the financial analyst community. In this work, our significant contributions are twofold: we provide explanatory bias prediction models which will subsequently allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain the bias using macroeconomic as well as sector and firm specific variables. We obtain some important results. In particular, the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and their signs are coherent with the intuition. However, we conclude that the microeconomic variables are the main explanatory variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi-systematically to improve the forecasts of the analysts.en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlnameEconomics Bulletin
dc.relation.isversionofjnlvol7en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlissue11en
dc.relation.isversionofjnldate2008-08
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpages1-20en
dc.identifier.urlsitehttp://economicsbulletin.vanderbilt.edu/2008/volume7/EB-06G10031A.pdfen
dc.description.sponsorshipprivateouien
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpublisherVanderbilt Universityen
dc.subject.ddclabelEconomie politiqueen


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