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hal.structure.identifierCEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
dc.contributor.authorDolbeault, Jean
HAL ID: 87
ORCID: 0000-0003-4234-2298
hal.structure.identifierCEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
dc.contributor.authorTurinici, Gabriel
HAL ID: 16
ORCID: 0000-0003-2713-006X
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-29T12:02:50Z
dc.date.available2021-10-29T12:02:50Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.issn2544-7297
dc.identifier.urihttps://basepub.dauphine.psl.eu/handle/123456789/22116
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectEpidemic modelsen
dc.subjectDisease controlen
dc.subjectHeterogeneous populationsen
dc.subjectBasic reproduction ratioen
dc.subjectEquilibrium solutionsen
dc.subject.ddc515en
dc.titleSocial heterogeneity and the COVID-19 lockdown in a multi-group SEIR modelen
dc.typeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
dc.description.abstractenThe goal of the lockdown is to mitigate and if possible prevent the spread of an epidemic. It consists in reducing social interactions. This is taken into account by the introduction of a factor of reduction of social interactions q, and by decreasing the transmission coefficient of the disease accordingly. Evaluating q is a difficult question and one can ask if it makes sense to compute an average coefficient q for a given population, in order to make predictions on the basic reproduction rate R0, the dynamics of the epidemic or the fraction of the population that will have been infected by the end of the epidemic. On a very simple example, we show that the computation of R0 in a heterogeneous population is not reduced to the computation of an average q but rather to the direct computation of an average coefficient R0. Even more interesting is the fact that, in a range of data compatible with the Covid-19 outbreak, the size of the epidemic is deeply modified by social heterogeneity, as is the height of the epidemic peak, while the date at which it is reached mainly depends on the average R0 coefficient. This short note is an application and a summary of the technical results that can be found in J. Dolbeault and G. Turinici, Heterogeneous social interactions and the COVID-19 lockdown outcome in a multi-group SEIR model.en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlnameComputational and Mathematical Biophysics
dc.relation.isversionofjnlvol9en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlissue1en
dc.relation.isversionofjnldate2021-03
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpages14-21en
dc.relation.isversionofdoi10.1515/cmb-2020-0115en
dc.identifier.urlsitehttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02614585en
dc.subject.ddclabelAnalyseen
dc.relation.forthcomingnonen
dc.description.ssrncandidatenon
dc.description.halcandidatenonen
dc.description.readershiprechercheen
dc.description.audienceInternationalen
dc.relation.Isversionofjnlpeerreviewedouien
dc.date.updated2021-10-29T11:59:06Z
hal.author.functionaut
hal.author.functionaut


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