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hal.structure.identifierInstitut Cochin [IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016)]
dc.contributor.authorDanchin, Antoine
HAL ID: 21434
ORCID: 0000-0002-6350-5001
hal.structure.identifierCEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
dc.contributor.authorTurinici, Gabriel
HAL ID: 16
ORCID: 0000-0003-2713-006X
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-28T09:53:17Z
dc.date.available2021-10-28T09:53:17Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.identifier.issn0025-5564
dc.identifier.urihttps://basepub.dauphine.psl.eu/handle/123456789/22112
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2en
dc.subjectimmunityen
dc.subjectAntibody-dependent enhancementen
dc.subjectSEIR modelen
dc.subjectVaccineen
dc.subjectDengue feveren
dc.subjectAsymptomaticen
dc.subject.ddc515en
dc.titleImmunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?en
dc.typeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
dc.description.abstractenMotivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level that we fit to available data; using several scenarios of the fragilization dynamics, we derive quantitative insights into the additional expected numbers of severe cases and deaths.en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlnameMathematical Biosciences
dc.relation.isversionofjnlvol331en
dc.relation.isversionofjnldate2021-01
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpages108499en
dc.relation.isversionofdoi10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108499en
dc.identifier.urlsitehttps://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02872798en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpublisherElsevieren
dc.subject.ddclabelAnalyseen
dc.relation.forthcomingnonen
dc.description.ssrncandidatenon
dc.description.halcandidatenonen
dc.description.readershiprechercheen
dc.description.audienceInternationalen
dc.relation.Isversionofjnlpeerreviewedouien
dc.date.updated2021-10-28T09:51:06Z
hal.author.functionaut
hal.author.functionaut


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