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Immunity after COVID-19: protection or sensitization ?

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Date
2020
Publishing date
06-2020
Collection title
Cahier de recherche CEREMADE
Link to item file
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02872798
Dewey
Analyse
Sujet
COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; antibody-dependent enhancement; SEIR model; vaccine; dengue fever; asymptomatic
URI
https://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/21080
Collections
  • CEREMADE : Publications
Metadata
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Author
Danchin, Antoine
106187 Institut Cochin [IC UM3 (UMR 8104 / U1016)]
Turinici, Gabriel
60 CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision [CEREMADE]
Type
Document de travail / Working paper
Item number of pages
16
Abstract (EN)
Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level (taken here as age classes) that we fit on available data; this allows to derive quantitative insights into the future number of severe cases and deaths.

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