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dc.contributor.authorGallic, Ewen
dc.contributor.authorVermandel, Gauthier
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-13T12:10:08Z
dc.date.available2020-07-13T12:10:08Z
dc.date.issued2020-05
dc.identifier.issn0014-2921
dc.identifier.urihttps://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/20941
dc.language.isoenen
dc.subjectAgricultureen
dc.subjectBusiness cyclesen
dc.subjectClimate changeen
dc.subjectWeather shocksen
dc.subject.ddc333en
dc.subject.classificationjelQ.Q5.Q54en
dc.subject.classificationjelE.E3.E32en
dc.subject.classificationjelC.C1.C13en
dc.titleWeather shocksen
dc.typeArticle accepté pour publication ou publié
dc.description.abstractenHow much do weather shocks matter? The literature addresses this question in two isolated ways: either by looking at long-term effects through the prism of calibrated theoretical models, or by focusing on both short and long terms through the lens of empirical models. We propose a framework that reconciles these two approaches by taking the theory to the data in two complementary ways. We first document the propagation mechanism of a weather shock using a Vector Auto-Regressive model on New Zealand Data. To explain the mechanism, we build and estimate a general equilibrium model with a weather-dependent agricultural sector to investigate the weather’s business cycle implications. We find that weather shocks: (i) explain about 35% of GDP and agricultural output fluctuations in New Zealand; (ii) entail a welfare cost of 0.30% of permanent consumption; (iii) critically increases the macroeconomic volatility under climate change, resulting in a higher welfare cost peaking to 0.46% in the worst case scenario of climate change.en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlnameEuropean Economic Review
dc.relation.isversionofjnlvol124en
dc.relation.isversionofjnldate2020-05
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpages103409en
dc.relation.isversionofdoi10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103409en
dc.relation.isversionofjnlpublisherElsevieren
dc.subject.ddclabelEconomie de la terre et des ressources naturellesen
dc.relation.forthcomingnonen
dc.relation.forthcomingprintnonen
dc.description.ssrncandidatenonen
dc.description.halcandidatenonen
dc.description.readershiprechercheen
dc.description.audienceInternationalen
dc.relation.Isversionofjnlpeerreviewedouien
dc.relation.Isversionofjnlpeerreviewedouien
dc.date.updated2020-06-03T13:20:39Z
hal.person.labIds526949
hal.person.labIds163511


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