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Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices

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Date
2018
Link to item file
http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2430168
Dewey
Economie financière
Sujet
Mutual information; Market integration; Shocks propagation; Information flows; Directed graphs; Term structure; Futures; Crude oil; WTI
JEL code
Q.Q0.Q02; G.G1.G10; G.G1.G13; G.G1.G14; G.G4.G40
Conference name
US Commodity Futures and Trading Commission Seminar
Conference date
02-2018
Conference city
Washington
Conference country
United States
URI
https://basepub.dauphine.fr/handle/123456789/17707
Collections
  • DRM : Publications
Metadata
Show full item record
Author
Lautier, Delphine
1032 Dauphine Recherches en Management [DRM]
Raynaud, Franck
status unknown
Robe, Michel
62374 University of Illinois
Type
Communication / Conférence
Abstract (EN)
To what extent are futures prices interconnected across the maturity curve? Where in the term structure do price shocks originate, and which maturities do they reach? We propose an approach based on information theory to study these cross-maturity linkages and the extent to which connectedness is impacted by market events. We introduce the concepts of backward and forward information flows, and a novel type of directed graph, to investigate the propagation of price shocks across the WTI term structure. Using daily data, we show that the mutual information shared by contracts with different maturities increases substantially starting in 2004, falls back sharply in 2011-2014, and recovers thereafter. Our findings point to a puzzling re-segmentation by maturity of the WTI market in 2012-2014. We document that, on average, short-dated futures emit more information than do backdated contracts. Importantly, however, we also show that significant amounts of information flow backwards along the maturity curve -- almost always from intermediate maturities, but at times even from far-dated contracts. These backward flows are especially strong and far-reaching amid the 2007-2008 oil price boom/bust.

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