Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach

Li, Yingchun; Xiong, Wei; Hu, Wei; Berry, Pam; Ju, Hui; Lin, Erda; Wang, Wen; Li, Kuo; Pan, Jie

Li, Yingchun; Xiong, Wei; Hu, Wei; Berry, Pam; Ju, Hui; Lin, Erda; Wang, Wen; Li, Kuo; Pan, Jie (2015), Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach, Climatic Change, 128, 3-4, p. 355-366. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1165-5

Type

Article accepté pour publication ou publié

Date

2015

Journal name

Climatic Change

Volume

128

Number

3-4

Publisher

Springer

Pages

355-366

Abstract (EN)

Assessment of agricultural vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective adaptation options and strategies for the future. While assessment approaches vary across sectors and countries, there is a need to devise an effective method to assess agricultural vulnerability and provide information to policy-makers and stakeholders so that they can take appropriate adaptation actions. Agricultural vulnerability is analyzed as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using a multi-indicator approach. Spatial and temporal assessment is undertaken through constructing maps of agricultural vulnerability in China. The results indicate that using multiple indicators is very practical for assessing agricultural vulnerability and that agricultural vulnerability is already significant in Guizhou, Guangxi and Yunnan provinces in China and will become more serious in the 2040s. It was also found that adaptive capacity was generally underdeveloped in poor regions, such as Guizhou, Yunnan and Gansu. We recommend that policy-makers increase investment in improving irrigation infrastructure and provide more opportunities for the education of farmers and stakeholders together with developing the economy in vulnerable areas.

Subjects / Keywords

Agriculture; climate change; China

JEL

Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
Q56 - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
O53 - Asia including Middle East