Abstract (EN)

Oil recently topped the symbolic mark of $50 a barrel. There are several explanations for this spectacular jump in oil prices: the war in Iraq, the Venezuelan crisis, conflict in Nigeria, the Yukos affair in Russia... But this surge is not uniquely the result of temporary factors. Even though prices could well fall just as sharply, their rise is in fact a fundamental trend. Most oil-producing nations are already at maximum output capacity. What's more, the market, especially the United States, is looking for light grades that most exporters are unable to supply in the volumes demanded. Plus there is continually climbing demand from China, adding upward pressure on prices. It would be wrong to panic, however. This rise will obviously have an impact on growth rates in industrialized nations. But there are also equally indisputable beneficial effects: higher prices encourage importing nations to work harder on developing other sources of energy that are less polluting that oil. This shift is essential given that fossil fuel reserves are not infinite.